Hegemon = leader, dictator. Hegemony = leadership, domination. I invented an under-emphasized element of this political concept that I call Reciprocal Hegemony. This is the influence that a group of people have over who can be their leader. Trump is not a leader; rather he is a demagogue and populist who repeats favored themes back to those who favor those themes. Trump could not "lead" a MAGA crowd unless they already harbored MAGA sentiments. That is the scariest and most difficult fact of our current political situation.
But, therein lies some hope. Democrats don’t need to defeat everyone that once voted for Trump. Polls show that many independents and former Trump voters now question whether that guy should be president again. The right person, the right message could peel off some of this wavering MAGA crowd, perhaps enough to win a few battleground voters over to the Democrat side. Democrats need to find those messages and reach out to those MAGA types who may be tired or disgusted by Trump. The MAGA movement is a coalition of people who have different reasons for their political stance, different reasons for going MAGA. Peeling off a few percent, especially in key battleground states, is the surest way to deny Trump a win in the Electoral College.
MAGA sentiments, it seems to me include 5 main themes, but not all participants believe all five. The movement is a coalition including some who are single issue voters or who are only partly convinced of a particular MAGA message. The five mains issues IMHO:
1. Resentment. I am pretty sure that all factions within MAGA harbor resentments, perhaps at different things.
2. Racism, overt or covert. Sometimes the racism is so covert that the individual racist doesn't think it is racism.
3. Religiosity. Whether a formal member of a church, a self-proclaimed believer, an apostate or just a person with a personality prone to cult-like behavior, MAGA types tend to be fervent, true-believer types of people. You could say this is a lack of critical thinking skills, as this tendency presents as "stupid" or "uninformed" but I think some MAGA types are quite smart and educated, but their intelligence is subsumed in the fervor to express the rest.
4. Xenophobia. Hate and fear of "others" which often gets lumped in with racism, but in American history it has been quite popular for white people to hate other white people who were immigrants, members of a different religion or otherwise "different." This drives up anger and fear of national border issues, for example.
5. Nationalism. Belief that their group are the "true" citizens of the country and the people who should have rights and privileges that should be denied to others (the "in-group"). This drives anti-tax behavior, international isolationism, disrespect for laws and policies that accord rights and privileges to out-groups and attacks on civil society and institutions that they decide are not "true" American institutions or that have been, in their view, turned against them.
You can see all of these themes in Trump's rants , usually all in each speech, as it is his way of earning support of the MAGA types. He must say these things to keep the real bosses, the real Hegemonic group, the members of MAGA, on his side. Democrats must learn to deflate, obscure and re-direct their opposition to the five themes, but they must do this in a way that breaks up the coalition of people who harbor different parts of the MAGA belief system. Divide them to beat them.
Overall the MAGA movement is a minority of Americans. As I suggested, peeling off a few percent, especially in key battleground states, is the surest way to deny Trump a win in the Electoral College. I feel the best way to do this is for the Democrats to pick one or two of the 5 themes and go hard on those only - leave the rest alone. For example, it may be effective to pick apart different elements of the resentment crowd. Good Op Research by Democrats is needed to identify concentrations of people who want to hear how they are going to personally be helped by Democrats. I'll give it a try here.
First, resentment. A big part of the anger you see in MAGA types is economic resentment. Bernie Sanders and AOC are right about that. Democrats should not push the social safety net as a leading issue, but rather push for economic equality, and push for things that do not seem to help any one group. IMHO revisions to tax policy is the strongest thing a Democrat can propose to the MAGA crowd. To be effective, a tax proposal must clearly benefit everyone. The main policy initiative I can think of would be raising the personal exemption which was made “$0” in the “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act” that produced the Trump deficit balloon. This personal exemption should be raised to at least $5,000 per person for all tax payers. Another very popular tax reform would be to stop taxation on Social Security benefits, or set a much higher personal exemption for Social Security incomes.
Second, Jobs. The pro-union stance is good. Infrastructure is good. Farm credits and other farmer benefits. "Made in America" policies and lots of talk about import regulation.
Third, immigration and border security. Biden supports the toughest border regulation in many decades, much tougher than Trump in his four years, much tougher than any President, Republican or Democrat since Ronald Reagan, much tougher than Republicans in the House of Representatives.
The Democratic message must be stronger, more pointed, more forceful. Democrats should say that the Senate bill that is being rejected by the Speaker of the House "is only the first step" in what Democrats plan on implementing. Democrats should have policy statements indicating that the border laws will be strictly enforced, illegal immigrants and criminals will be prosecuted, jailed or deported, and the numbers of immigrants should be firmly limited. All the talk about humanitarianism is not helpful. Of course Democrats support humanitarian treatment of people at the border, even if they are criminal or in violation of immigration policy. But please don't lead with that message! Tough on immigration. That’s an important issue for Americans as you can see from the success of Representative Suozzi has shown in New York District 3.
The elections in 2024 are winnable by Democrats. Let’s get our messages together!
Excellent piece Ben! There’s a lot of truth in this thread, thanks!!