Defeat Trump

But how? And why?

Trump’s success with certain voters is because he has figured out how to play back to them what they already believe.

Trump supporters are exactly who political scientists have found them to be: racist, xenophobic, less educated on average, more rural on average, earning below national averages, more religious than average while less altruistic than average and generally feeling disempowered.

If you want to correct something wrong you need to first understand what it really is. Trump’s power is based on the way the primary system works - the above described true believers are the ones who come out in the primaries. Trump can always raise the prospect of defeating any Republican at the primary level and that is the mechanism that keeps Republicans in line.

Fortunately, political scientists have also figured out that probably less than 30% of Americans fit the above described profile. The second source of Trump‘s political power is the coalition that he has formed with the wealthy and influential people who are also willing to lie to the population in order to control the government.

These wealthy, influential people (who should be described as oligarchs) form a coalition with Trump that brings his overall support into the almost 50% range. From that point, the only thing needed for Trump to win is for Democrats to stay home or become confused about their own goals, or share some of the above described perspectives or just make a stupid mistake and vote for Trump “just this once”.

It is an analytical mistake to think of Trump supporters as some kind of zombie-like cult members. They are not and they would never describe themselves that way. If you watch interviews of Trump supporters on TV they say similar things to what you hear from many Democrats. They just think that Democrats can’t/won’t fix their problems.

The cure for Trumpism is straightforward. Democrats must construct a coalition that can credibly focus on improving the lives of the people profiled above.

You can’t get them all as many are true believers. The Democrat’s goal must be to peel away what are called persuadable voters and thus decrease the size of the Trump coalition. Democrats are unlikely to achieve this without breaking with their recent past of politics as usual. Maybe Bernie and AOC have a slightly too progressive of a message to attract mainstream Democrats, but their popularity signals that they are going in the right direction. Democrats and Democratic leadership need to show up very obviously on the side of ordinary Americans Drop the culture wars. Concentrate on the economy and kitchen table issues. Trump is becoming so unpopular now that even a little bit of populism from Democrats might do the trick.

Once Democrats are back in power several things become important for the health of our democracy. First, the way money is used in politics must be regulated and restricted. The Democrats have been both unwilling and unable to address campaign finance; maybe now they will come to understand that limiting what the oligarchs can do with their money is key to a Democrat’s political prospects.

Second, rule of law must be reaffirmed and bolstered. Holding Trump and others accountable for crimes is key, both as an object lesson to others who would break the law to get their way and to bolster Americans’ confidence in government.

Third, the USA must return to an era of stability, predictability and leadership in world affairs. Russia’s incursion into Europe must be stopped. Israel’s genocide of Palestinians must stop. Muslim persecution and terrorizing of Jews and other religions must stop.

Only by America stepping up can we adequately address these threats to world order. Only then can world poverty and ill health be addressed. Only then can we return to working for a more sustainable environment. Only by saving American democracy can we save the world.